Quick answer: The advice looks worse the closer you check it. Only 61.1% of students finish a degree within six years, so roughly 4 in 10 who start do not finish, and the average person who leaves without a credential carries about $30,000 in debt while earning less than people who never enrolled. Meanwhile 47% of workers with trade credentials now out-earn the median bachelor's degree holder, up from about 30% in 2016.
I want to be careful about how I say this, because it is easy to turn into a cheap shot at universities, and that is not the argument.
The argument is narrower and, I think, harder to dismiss. For about thirty years the default advice to a teenager was go to college, and the trades were what you suggested when that did not seem realistic. That advice was given as though it carried no risk. It carries quite a lot.
The number nobody quotes
Here is where the standard case for college quietly cheats.
Every comparison you have seen between degree holders and everyone else is measured on people who finished. That is the whole trick. Only 61.1% of students complete a degree within six years. Round it however you like: something close to 4 in 10 people who start do not come out the other side with the credential.
Those people did not get a discount on the tuition. The average student who leaves without a degree is carrying roughly $30,000 in debt, and the research is blunt about where that leaves them. They default at higher rates and earn less over a lifetime than graduates, which is unsurprising, and also less than people who never enrolled at all. That second part is the one that should bother us.
So when someone says college graduates earn more, they are right, and they are describing the survivors. A 17 year old deciding what to do next year is not choosing between "graduate" and "tradesperson." They are taking a bet with roughly 6 in 10 odds, where the losing outcome is debt with nothing attached to it.
Nobody frames it that way in a school guidance office. They should.
What just happened, and who is paying for it
On September 1, the Lowe's Foundation launched what it calls the largest cross-sector skilled trades coalition in US history. More than 75 companies, including Nvidia, AT&T, Bank of America, General Motors, Carrier, DEWALT and Duke Energy. The target is a million people trained for skilled trades careers by 2035.
It is worth being honest about what that is. This is not charity. Lowe's sells to contractors. DEWALT sells them tools. Duke Energy and Nvidia need electricians for reasons that have nothing to do with anyone's career fulfillment. These companies are funding a workforce pipeline because the shortage has started costing them money, with an estimated 2.1 million skilled trades jobs potentially unfilled by 2030.
None of which makes it a bad thing. Self-interest that produces a million trained tradespeople is still a million trained tradespeople, and I would rather have corporations funding apprenticeships for selfish reasons than not funding them for noble ones. But read it as a market signal, not a good deed. Seventy-five companies do not fund a pipeline for a career that is dying.
Students already worked it out
The enrollment data suggests teenagers are ahead of the adults advising them.
Enrollment at trade-focused two-year colleges is up 11.7% in the most recent reporting period, and almost 20% since spring 2020. Construction programs jumped 19% between 2021 and 2022. Mechanics and repair gained 10.4%.
College has not collapsed. Over 19.3 million students still enrolled after high school as of fall 2025, and roughly 63% of recent graduates still go within a year of finishing. The default is intact. It is just no longer unquestioned.
And the money moved. In 2016, about 30% of workers with trade credentials out-earned the median bachelor's degree holder. By 2026 it is 47%. Electricians went from a $62,350 median in May 2024 to a $71,490 mean a year later. Plumbers and pipefitters, $62,970 to $72,170. Mostly without debt, and usually while being paid to train.
So what should we actually tell a 17 year old
Not "skip college." That is the same lazy advice with the sign flipped, and for plenty of people, medicine, law, engineering, research, the degree is the only route and obviously worth it.
What I would say instead is that the question was always framed wrong. It is not degree versus trade. It is: what is your realistic probability of finishing the thing you are about to start, and what happens to you if you do not?
Ask that honestly and the trades come out looking less like a fallback and more like a rational hedge. An apprenticeship pays you while you train. If you leave halfway through, you leave with skills and no debt, which is a far softer landing than the one waiting for the 4 in 10.
We spent thirty years telling kids the safe path was the one with the degree at the end of it. We never really talked about what happens when there is no degree at the end of it. That was the part we got wrong.
Once you are trained, getting hired should not cost you either
The trades gap is a hiring problem as much as a training problem. Newly trained tradespeople still have to find work, and too many platforms charge them for the privilege.
Qiggz is a free, US-based marketplace connecting tradespeople, apprentices included, with homeowners and employers. No lead fees, no commissions, one profile for gig work and full-time roles.
Create your free Qiggz profile and browse open trade jobs near you. Weighing the routes in? Start with apprenticeship versus trade school, or the guides to becoming an electrician and becoming a plumber. For the money, see how much electricians make and the highest paying trade jobs in 2026.
Frequently asked questions
How many students actually finish college?
About 61.1% complete a degree within six years, so roughly 4 in 10 who start do not finish in that window. Completion varies sharply by institution type: 77.5% at private nonprofit four-year colleges, 67.4% at public four-year universities, and around 46% at private for-profit four-year schools.
What happens to people who start college and do not finish?
They keep the debt without the credential. The average student who leaves without a degree carries roughly $30,000 in loans, defaults at higher rates, and earns less over a lifetime than both graduates and people who never enrolled. It is the worst of the three outcomes, and it is not rare.
Is trade school genuinely a better financial bet than college?
For a growing share of trades, yes. In 2016 about 30% of workers with trade credentials out-earned the median bachelor's degree holder. By 2026 that is 47%, and it comes with little or no debt because apprenticeships pay while you train. It still varies a lot by trade, field and location, so this is a shift in the odds rather than a guarantee.
What is the Building Futures Skilled Trades Coalition?
A coalition launched by the Lowe's Foundation on September 1, 2026, backed by over 75 companies including Nvidia, AT&T, Bank of America, General Motors, Carrier, DEWALT and Duke Energy, aiming to train 1 million people for skilled trades careers by 2035. It is a response to an estimated 2.1 million skilled trades jobs that could go unfilled by 2030, and the companies involved have direct commercial reasons to want that pipeline filled.
Is college enrollment falling?
No. Over 19.3 million students enrolled after high school as of fall 2025 and roughly 63% of recent graduates still enroll within a year. What has changed is that the trades are no longer treated as the fallback option.
Sources
- Six-year completion rate of 61.1% (fall 2019 cohort) and completion by institution type: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, with reporting via Inside Higher Ed, 2026.
- Average debt of roughly $30,000 for students who leave without a degree, higher default rates, and lower lifetime earnings than both graduates and those who never enrolled: 2026 college completion and student debt analyses.
- Lowe's Foundation Building Futures Skilled Trades Coalition launch (September 1, 2026), partners, and the 1 million by 2035 goal: Lowe's Corporate newsroom and Lowe's Foundation, 2026.
- Estimated 2.1 million unfilled skilled trades jobs by 2030: Construction Dive, 2026.
- Trade-focused two-year enrollment up 11.7% and almost 20% since spring 2020, construction programs up 19% (2021 to 2022), mechanics and repair up 10.4%: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center data as reported by Quartz and Research.com, 2026.
- College enrollment of 19.3 million (fall 2025) and roughly 63% of recent high school graduates enrolling within a year: Research.com and related 2026 enrollment reporting.
- Trade credentials out-earning the median bachelor's holder (30% in 2016 to 47% in 2026), and electrician and plumber wage movement: CampusROI and Landmark Wealth Management, citing Bureau of Labor Statistics wage data, 2026.
- Qiggz no lead fees and no commissions: first-party (Qiggz product); see /for-contractors.
